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Tuesday, 15 May 2012

Tri-Borough Trepidation

The Dame has never claimed to be a political savant, though she has pointed out the risks to the stability of the Tri-Borough arrangement IF Hammersmith & Fulham reverts to it's Labour origins.
The Dame's Personal Fortune Teller

There is a further risk to the grand plan: it comes from a less obvious source.
Westminster City Council, through the ineptitude  of Cllrs BarrowBoy and 'Boy' Rowley and a generalised anti government swing, could start returning Independents.
According to the Dame's socialite nephew, the hopeless Ludo, who spends much of his time in louche Mayfair establishments, local Conservative business people like Jeremy King, owner of various restaurants and Richard Caring and Philip Green are plotting to teach Cllr Roe a sharp lesson.....
Don't be surprised to see a number of Independents, supported by powerful local business interests, take Conservative wards......

But turning to our home turf......

A few Councillors in North Kensington will have cause for concern about the 2014 Council elections given the results that Labour achieved in the GLA elections on 3 May.  The Labour GLA candidate Cllr Todd Foreman easily won the Royal Borough’s four northern wards of Golborne, Notting Barns, Colville and St Charles.

In Golborne and Notting Barns, Labour piled up huge majorities on double digit swings since 2008.  In Colville, the Lib-Dem candidate came third, with only 15.7% of the vote.  Cllrs Caruana and Jones should be very worried—it appears that the Colville electorate’s flirtation with the Lib-Dems is at an end.  Finally, there is St Charles.  Labour easily won the ward with 45.4% of the vote, with the Tories trailing well behind on 33.6%.  The question is, will Cllr Roundell Palmer now try to do a chicken run to another ward, and if so, will any other ward’s Conservative association want him? 

North Kensington results

St Charles
Lab         794         45.4%
Con        588         33.6%
LD           79          4.5%
Green   195         11.1%
UKIP      94          5.4%
Con to Lab swing since 2008:  9.5%

Lab         638         39.7%
Con        453         28.2%
LD           252         15.7%
Green   199         12.4%
UKIP      67            4.2%
Con to Lab swing since 2008:  9.0%
Lib-Dem to Lab swing since 2010 Council elections:  15.5%

Notting Barns
Lab         1,038     51.5%
Con          565       28.0%
LD             203       10.1%
Green     220       10.9%
UKIP        89         4.4%
Con to Lab swing since 2008:  11.6%

Lab         963         58.9%
Con        333         20.4%
LD           75            4.6%
Green   174         10.6%
UKIP      91            5.6%
Con to Lab swing since 2008:  10.5%


  1. I had no idea the Dame was such a political sage

  2. got your facts wrong bent toad - where are the postal votes

  3. It's impossible to know exactly how the postal votes were distributed ward by ward as London Elects only gives the postal vote totals for the whole of the borough. There was a small swing to Labour (1.9%) in the borough-wide postal votes, so there is no evidence that postals would have put the Tories ahead in the north.

  4. !7:38
    You really are a bit of a wag...Bent takes me back to prep school day. Frightening to think Matthew that you are representing people. Stop being thick...

  5. Dame
    Do you think you could get Boris to employ Palmer when he is booted out? After all he seems to take on the Rotten Borough rubbish

  6. But pride often goeth before a fall, so complacency is not a good idea. And if only there were some strong independent business people ready to take on some of the sitting Tory councillors in the southern parts of the Borough.

  7. Naughty naughty Up Yours Palmer, now you know you promised Merrick faithfully you wouldn't comment upon or even read Hornet or you won't get invited to all those posh summer garden parties.

    Now you're in hot water again, oh dear.

    Detention for Palmer maxima!

  8. Indeed 20.51, spot on.

    Dear Dame, would you please ask some of your dear friends if they know anyone who would stand as an independent? Being a Councillor in the south is an absolute hoot and you don't have to anything really, apart from go to parties and suck up to your benefactors.

    What? Oh, you want hardworking Councillors? You'd better send them up to the north of the borough for some work experience then.

  9. On these results Labour will fancy their chances to gain everything back in North Kensington but the result in Churchill ward in Westminster looks the most interesting...they must think they have a live chance in 2014

    Do any of the H and F results look hopeful for them?

  10. Ukip's results are very disappointing. Apparently, they forgot to mention the Party's name on the ballot paper. Is this really true?

  11. UKIP were listed as "Fresh Choice for London" on the ballot paper.

    This was by design.

  12. > Do any of the H and F results look hopeful for them?

    Quite a few.

    The margins in some of H&F are very narrow - 35 votes difference between Tories and Labour in "North End", 103 votes difference in "Fulham Reach". Labour must be looking at these and considering them both winnable in 2014.

    Of more interest are the three wards where the "left wing" vote is clearly greater than that of the "right". The left-wing vote has simply been split more and the Tories remain the single largest party. A migration from Green to Labour or Tory to UKIP could easily cause all of them to change hands.

    I wouldn't be counting my chickens if I were wearing a blue rosette in H&F.

  13. Labour specifically concentrated its efforts in its strongest wards in LBHF in order to maximise the Labour vote in an election where every vote in London counted equally (so see very high swings to Labour in wards like College Park & Old Oak, Wormholt & White City and Shepherds Bush Green). In a council election the strategy will be very different and Labour will work much harder in marginal wards, so Tories have nothing to be complacent about in terms of holding the Council.

  14. Results in H&F look intersting. Will be interesting to see if Labour decide to let all 17 seats in Fulham stay Conservative and just try to stop the Tories from winning 7 in Hammersmith.

    Sands End is no longer winnable and perhaps Fulham Broadway is heading in that direction?

    H&F was the home of split wards and in the end even if Labour take seats in 3-4 wards-the Tories will still win seats in those wards to hang on-if it comes to that.


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