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| The Dame's Personal Fortune Teller |
There is a further risk to the grand plan: it comes from a less obvious source.
Westminster City Council, through the ineptitude of Cllrs BarrowBoy and 'Boy' Rowley and a generalised anti government swing, could start returning Independents.
According to the Dame's socialite nephew, the hopeless Ludo, who spends much of his time in louche Mayfair establishments, local Conservative business people like Jeremy King, owner of various restaurants and Richard Caring and Philip Green are plotting to teach Cllr Roe a sharp lesson.....
According to the Dame's socialite nephew, the hopeless Ludo, who spends much of his time in louche Mayfair establishments, local Conservative business people like Jeremy King, owner of various restaurants and Richard Caring and Philip Green are plotting to teach Cllr Roe a sharp lesson.....
Don't be surprised to see a number of Independents, supported by powerful local business interests, take Conservative wards......
But turning to our home turf......
A few Councillors in North Kensington will have cause for concern about the 2014 Council elections given the results that Labour achieved in the GLA elections on 3 May. The Labour GLA candidate Cllr Todd Foreman easily won the Royal Borough’s four northern wards of Golborne, Notting Barns, Colville and St Charles.
In Golborne and Notting Barns, Labour piled up huge majorities on double digit swings since 2008. In Colville, the Lib-Dem candidate came third, with only 15.7% of the vote. Cllrs Caruana and Jones should be very worried—it appears that the Colville electorate’s flirtation with the Lib-Dems is at an end. Finally, there is St Charles. Labour easily won the ward with 45.4% of the vote, with the Tories trailing well behind on 33.6%. The question is, will Cllr Roundell Palmer now try to do a chicken run to another ward, and if so, will any other ward’s Conservative association want him?
Full results are available here: http://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/results-and-past-elections/results-2012
North Kensington results
St Charles
Lab 794 45.4%
Con 588 33.6%
LD 79 4.5%
Green 195 11.1%
UKIP 94 5.4%
Con 588 33.6%
LD 79 4.5%
Green 195 11.1%
UKIP 94 5.4%
Con to Lab swing since 2008: 9.5%
Colville
Lab 638 39.7%
Con 453 28.2%
LD 252 15.7%
Green 199 12.4%
UKIP 67 4.2%
Con 453 28.2%
LD 252 15.7%
Green 199 12.4%
UKIP 67 4.2%
Con to Lab swing since 2008: 9.0%
Lib-Dem to Lab swing since 2010 Council elections: 15.5%
Notting Barns
Lab 1,038 51.5%
Con 565 28.0%
LD 203 10.1%
Green 220 10.9%
UKIP 89 4.4%
Con 565 28.0%
LD 203 10.1%
Green 220 10.9%
UKIP 89 4.4%
Con to Lab swing since 2008: 11.6%
Golborne
Lab 963 58.9%
Con 333 20.4%
LD 75 4.6%
Green 174 10.6%
UKIP 91 5.6%
Con 333 20.4%
LD 75 4.6%
Green 174 10.6%
UKIP 91 5.6%
Con to Lab swing since 2008: 10.5%
I had no idea the Dame was such a political sage
ReplyDeletegot your facts wrong bent toad - where are the postal votes
ReplyDeleteIt's impossible to know exactly how the postal votes were distributed ward by ward as London Elects only gives the postal vote totals for the whole of the borough. There was a small swing to Labour (1.9%) in the borough-wide postal votes, so there is no evidence that postals would have put the Tories ahead in the north.
ReplyDelete!7:38
ReplyDeleteYou really are a bit of a wag...Bent Toad....it takes me back to prep school day. Frightening to think Matthew that you are representing people. Stop being thick...
Dame
ReplyDeleteDo you think you could get Boris to employ Palmer when he is booted out? After all he seems to take on the Rotten Borough rubbish
But pride often goeth before a fall, so complacency is not a good idea. And if only there were some strong independent business people ready to take on some of the sitting Tory councillors in the southern parts of the Borough.
ReplyDeleteNaughty naughty Up Yours Palmer, now you know you promised Merrick faithfully you wouldn't comment upon or even read Hornet or you won't get invited to all those posh summer garden parties.
ReplyDeleteNow you're in hot water again, oh dear.
Detention for Palmer maxima!
Indeed 20.51, spot on.
ReplyDeleteDear Dame, would you please ask some of your dear friends if they know anyone who would stand as an independent? Being a Councillor in the south is an absolute hoot and you don't have to anything really, apart from go to parties and suck up to your benefactors.
What? Oh, you want hardworking Councillors? You'd better send them up to the north of the borough for some work experience then.
On these results Labour will fancy their chances to gain everything back in North Kensington but the result in Churchill ward in Westminster looks the most interesting...they must think they have a live chance in 2014
ReplyDeleteDo any of the H and F results look hopeful for them?
Ukip's results are very disappointing. Apparently, they forgot to mention the Party's name on the ballot paper. Is this really true?
ReplyDeleteUKIP were listed as "Fresh Choice for London" on the ballot paper.
ReplyDeleteThis was by design.
> Do any of the H and F results look hopeful for them?
ReplyDeleteQuite a few.
The margins in some of H&F are very narrow - 35 votes difference between Tories and Labour in "North End", 103 votes difference in "Fulham Reach". Labour must be looking at these and considering them both winnable in 2014.
Of more interest are the three wards where the "left wing" vote is clearly greater than that of the "right". The left-wing vote has simply been split more and the Tories remain the single largest party. A migration from Green to Labour or Tory to UKIP could easily cause all of them to change hands.
I wouldn't be counting my chickens if I were wearing a blue rosette in H&F.
Labour specifically concentrated its efforts in its strongest wards in LBHF in order to maximise the Labour vote in an election where every vote in London counted equally (so see very high swings to Labour in wards like College Park & Old Oak, Wormholt & White City and Shepherds Bush Green). In a council election the strategy will be very different and Labour will work much harder in marginal wards, so Tories have nothing to be complacent about in terms of holding the Council.
ReplyDeleteResults in H&F look intersting. Will be interesting to see if Labour decide to let all 17 seats in Fulham stay Conservative and just try to stop the Tories from winning 7 in Hammersmith.
ReplyDeleteSands End is no longer winnable and perhaps Fulham Broadway is heading in that direction?
H&F was the home of split wards and in the end even if Labour take seats in 3-4 wards-the Tories will still win seats in those wards to hang on-if it comes to that.